The way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until it stops rolling and then pick it up. – Bob Uecker
In baseball, the knuckleball — a slow pitch that moves in strange and unpredictable ways — can be impossible to hit and nearly impossible to catch. Physicists have studied it and have trouble explaining why it moves the way it does.
In just the past couple of weeks, we’ve seen tariffs on, off, raised, and paused, turmoil in the markets, and simultaneous selloffs in both equities and bonds. Someday, economists and historians will study this. Maybe they will have better luck than the physicists.
Amid all this, getting deals done feels like trying to hit or just catch knuckleballs. And yet, our developer clients are getting ready to pick up the ball when it stops rolling.
At AGM, we are seeing a lot of new multifamily deals.
Clients are bringing us market-rate projects that would not have penciled a year ago, but they are figuring out how to make them work now. FHA helps with lower rates and plenty of liquidity. We are also seeing joint ventures, deferred fees, lower insurance costs (at least for builder’s risk), more predictable construction costs (tariffs are still a wild card), and property tax and regulatory relief putting deals within reach. The idea is that developers will be ready when financial markets settle and spreads come back in.
We are hearing encouraging things as well at HUD.
They are still mostly rumors, but reliable sources like NAHB and the MBA say Green MIP is on its way out. However, its replacement is rumored to be the same 25 bp fee without the green design or reporting. Relief may be coming from sometimes onerous regulations that have crept into the program over time. And goals are emerging for faster, more streamlined processing of applications.
We are still dodging knuckleballs, but eventually, they will land and stop rolling.
If you have questions or need assistance, we will gladly talk with you. Please schedule a call.
